Commentary

Biden vs. Trump: Indo-Pacific Trade Initiatives

Key Takeaways

  • Both Trump and Biden in 2025 are comfortable with high tariffs and export controls aimed at competing with China, but Biden has pushed for industrial subsidies more than Trump has. Both leaders are viewed as “protectionist” by Indo-Pacific policy leaders.
  • Trump 1.0 had a strong preference for bilateral over multilateral approaches to trade deals aimed at supply chain restructuring. A second Trump administration would likely end Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) talks while perhaps retaining some institutional vestiges.
  • Trump has pledged to raise tariffs across the board but might end up focusing on China and resuming broad-based trade negotiations with Beijing. Some partner nations hope Biden 2.0 would revert to Obama market-opening approaches, but it is more likely that Biden will continue his free-trade avoidance.

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