Commentary

Harris vs. Trump: Climate and Energy Policy

Key Takeaways

  • Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s climate and energy agendas reflect widely divergent priorities and policy approaches. Harris seeks to achieve U.S. energy independence and address climate change concerns by investing in renewables, advocating for a “whole-of-government” and multilateral approach. Driven by a desire to boost U.S. industry, Trump seeks traditional energy resources and is likely to de-prioritize coordination with allies, partners, and international organizations on climate change, which he believes weakens the United States’ strategic position vis-à-vis China.
  • Nevertheless, the candidates show some minor areas of overlap. Both Trump and Harris have pledged support for expanding the United States’ nuclear energy capacity. Although Harris is not as openly supportive of fossil fuels as Trump, her tenure as Vice President saw a record increase in U.S. oil and LNG exports – despite the Biden administration’s focus on renewables via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Also, strategic competition with China has shaped both candidates’ climate and energy policies and will remain a key policy driver under either administration.
  • Trump and Harris presidencies give rise to different risks for the business community. A re-elected Trump could repeal the IRA or dismantle many of its core provisions on grants, subsidies, and other incentives, creating significant disruption for U.S. and foreign entities in ally and partner countries that have spent the past two years trying to benefit from the law. Meanwhile, a Harris administration might deepen tariffs and other protections (which Trump also supports) on electric vehicles, green technology, and strategic sectors.

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