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In December 2025, The Asia Group (TAG) launched its inaugural GeoCommercial Strategy survey[i] to develop an understanding of how geopolitical trends are affecting and shaping business. The survey focused not just on what is affecting business but how businesses are responding and thinking about the future. These are the top five takeaways for the road ahead in 2026:

1. Respondents perceive geopolitical risk has increased across the board.
2. Leaders across industry seek early warning for risks and opportunities.
3. Geopolitical developments are affecting nearly every business function.
4. Companies must proactively manage geopolitical impact on strategy and operations.
5. Businesses need a cross-cutting strategy to tackle predicted uncertainty

1. Respondents perceive geopolitical risk has increased across the board

TAG survey respondents reported that the average perceived geopolitical risk level reported surged 18 percent since last year. Nearly double the proportion of respondents now characterize their geopolitical risk exposure as “very high” or “high” compared to twelve months ago, while those reporting “low” or “very low” risk have declined by nearly half.

This increase in risk was perceived across the board, regardless of industry or function. Geopolitical volatility is no longer an episodic crisis, but instead an entrenched, enterprise-wide challenge requiring sustained strategic attention.

2. Leaders across industry seek early warning for risks and opportunities

More than half of survey respondents wanted earlier warning for emerging risks as their top priority in managing geopolitical developments. In contrast, reactive or passive support mechanisms, like regulatory and policy change tracking and crisis response planning and support, garnered minimal interest.

These results further highlight the shift from reactive management to proactive capacity building. Business leaders want to anticipate, shape, and respond to geopolitical shocks, and they are looking for the tools and capabilities to do so.

3. Geopolitical developments are affecting nearly every business function

Most survey respondents still identified Government Affairs as experiencing the most significant geopolitical impact, which is unsurprising given their traditional role in responding to these issues. But survey results also underscore that today’s geopolitical pressures have deeply impacted operational and commercial functions across the enterprise. Respondents also identified major impacts to operations and go-to-market, along with material impact to finance, manufacturing, marketing, and legal.

4. Companies must proactively manage geopolitical impact on strategy and operations

Faced with an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape, organizations are pivoting away from passively acknowledging risk and responding to impacts after the fact to a proactive approach, implementing concrete mitigation strategies across their strategic and operational frameworks.

Three strategies stood out:

(1) diversifying supply chains and supplier bases;

(2) enhancing scenario planning and risk monitoring capabilities; and

(3) adjusting geographic market priorities—with nearly half of respondents highlighting one of these approaches.

These responses reflect the vulnerability of geographic concentration, the need for forward-looking frameworks to anticipate risks and opportunities, and the push to adapt to region- and country-specific issues. And even the lower-scoring approaches reflect major shifts from a subset of respondents, like changes to capital investment planning or market entry and exit decisions.

5. Businesses need a cross-cutting strategy to tackle predicted uncertainty

Strategic uncertainty is the dominant concern for 2026, with 52 percent of respondents citing it as making long-term strategic planning more difficult.

Organizations must address geopolitical risk through holistic and cross-functional strategy if they want to solve problems for the whole business

Yet, beneath this anxiety lies a more complex reality: different business functions are grappling with different impacts from geopolitical developments. Respondents indicate that operations teams worry about disruption, government affairs teams deal with mounting regulatory burdens, communications and legal teams navigate reputational risks and stakeholder pressure, and commercial leaders confront potential revenue and market access loss.

The implication is clear: organizations must address geopolitical risk through holistic and cross-functional strategy if they want to solve problems for the whole business.[vi]

Conclusion

The pace of geopolitical change shows no signs of slowing in 2026. In just the first month of the year, U.S. action in Venezuela, tariff threats over Greenland, and rising tensions with Iran have all already impacted companies and markets, underscoring how geopolitics remains a central concern for global businesses. However, true differentiation will come from how firms navigate and respond to the profound shifts reshaping the global business environment—whether by transforming their strategy and operations, seeking and building early-warning mechanisms, or building a cross-functional approach to geopolitical strategy. This agility and foresight will shape the businesses best positioned to succeed in an increasingly complex and dynamic global landscape.

[i] Methodology:  63 respondents across 19 industries and a range of functions (including global CEOs, executives, general counsels, heads of government relations and investors) in the global business community. Participants were sourced from current and former TAG clients as well as TAG’s wider business network. Fielded from November–December 2025, this 10-question survey explored perspectives on geopolitical trends and issues facing businesses worldwide and how those businesses are responding.

[ii] Respondents were asked “Please rate the level of geopolitical risk impacting your organization now vs. 12 months ago (1 = very low risk, 5 = very high risk)”

[iii] Respondents were asked “Which of the following would be most valuable in helping your organization better manage geopolitical developments? (Select up to 3)”

[iv] Respondents were asked “In which business functions has your organization experienced the most significant geopolitical impact (Select up to 3)”

[v] Respondents were asked “Has your organization made, or is your organization planning to make, any of the following changes in response to geopolitical developments? (Select up to 3)”

[vi] Respondents were asked “What is your PRIMARY concern regarding how geopolitical development might affect your business over the next 12 months? (Select up to 3)”