“Trump will want wins he can point to: purchases of American farm goods and aircraft, and more reliable access to rare earths. Xi will press for predictable tariffs and fewer technology restrictions. Both leaders want a deal that eases pressure at home without giving up leverage in future negotiations. Overall summit expectations are low, but if Trump-Xi do meet later this year, it would make sense to save the best for last.”
Read the full transcript below.
1. Xi’s first US visit in more than a decade: how significant is it?
It’s a high stakes summit with low expectations but the symbolism matters. Xi is returning to the White House when both countries need a steadier guardrails to what is a competitive, and complex relationship. But a warm welcome is only the opening scene. The test is whether they can manage the next disagreement across a range of issues be it trade, technology, security, geopolitics, etc. What’s worth watching for is if they confirm follow up meetings in November (APEC) and December (G20 – Miami)2. What are Trump and Xi likely to discuss?
“Trump will want wins he can point to: purchases of American farm goods and aircraft, and more reliable access to rare earths. Xi will press for predictable tariffs and fewer technology restrictions. Both leaders want a deal that eases pressure at home without giving up leverage in future negotiations. Overall summit expectations are low, but if Trump-Xi do meet later this year, it would make sense to save the best for last.”
3. Will trade, Taiwan, rare earths and AI all be on the agenda?
“Absolutely. Trade and rare earths are where practical deals may be possible. AI brings the technology race into the room. Taiwan is the most sensitive issue: Xi will want to hear Trump’s position directly. The challenge is to discuss it clearly without creating a new crisis through careless language.”
4. Can China and the US reach an agreement on AI?
“I don’t expect any grand AI bargain. Both countries see advanced chips and computing power as central to their economic and security futures. They could, however, agree to keep talking about safety, military uses and crisis communication. That sounds modest. Even so, the guardrails matter especially when the technology is moving so quickly.”
5. Will Trump raise Ukraine, Russia and North Korea?
“I expect he will. Trump will want to know whether Xi can help restrain Moscow or Pyongyang and create openings for diplomacy. Xi may be willing to talk, but Beijing will resist taking responsibility for their decisions. Based on colleagues in the Middle East, China’s actual support is quite “underwhelming.” These conversations could clarify each side’s position; but a breakthrough is much less likely though China will promote de-escalation versus taking a military side to promote its broader interests in the Middle East.”