Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden authorized unprecedented measures to reduce the United States’ dependence on critical minerals imports and bolster its domestic production capabilities. While their motivations were similar, their approaches to implementation differed significantly.
Trump’s strategy focused on narrowly scoped policies that empowered federal agencies to classify critical minerals and identify acquisition risks. The Biden administration expanded those measures and made critical minerals policy part of a “whole-of-government” drive to strengthen supply chains across multiple sectors. This approach prioritized creating and/or refining systems and processes for financing, infrastructure, and (especially) international coordination.
If elected, either candidate will likely seek to accelerate funding for domestic production and further empower federal agencies to monitor critical minerals suppliers and stockpiles. However, a re-elected Trump may de-prioritize strengthening U.S.-led international coordination on balancing China’s dominance in the sector.
It is possible that a second Trump administration’s overall trade policy toward China – if it includes high unilateral tariffs – could prompt Beijing to suspend critical mineral exports to the United States. China refrained from using this drastic option during the 2018-2020 U.S.-China trade dispute as it likely did not want to risk more damage to its own technology supply chains. Beijing could revise its calculus depending on how a re-elected Trump pursues his China policy.
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