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Key Takeaways

• While Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s first term approaches to trade with Japan showed many similarities, their approaches to security cooperation differed significantly. Trump urged Japan to strengthen its defense capabilities without further committing U.S. resources and grumbled about the expense of U.S. support to Japan’s defense. Biden sought to deepen alliance coordination and further integrate Japan into emerging multilateral security architecture.
• A second Biden term would likely see even closer U.S.-Japan security engagement, more intense military-to-military coordination at the tactical and operational levels, and modest progress in the integration of the U.S. defense industrial base with that of Japan. Closer U.S.-Japan trade cooperation may be difficult given the increasingly protectionist bent of U.S. politics, although Biden may have more leeway after the election.
• A second Trump term will likely place greater pressure on Japan to demonstrate its value as an economic and security partner, amplify Tokyo’s fears of abandonment during a potential crisis, and end its hopes of U.S. economic leadership in Asia, such as through the IPEF initiative. Trump’s MEMORANDUM 2 transactional and unpredictable approach may make it more difficult for Tokyo to coordinate with Washington on key regional challenges.