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China’s initial posture following Hamas’ surprise terrorist attack in Israel on October 7 reflected a familiar strategy of minimizing risk by avoiding involvement and any sharp public statements. Notably, China has not specifically condemned Hamas’ October 7 actions, but has condemned condemned violence against civilians and called for restraint by “all parties.”

In response to Israeli complaints, Foreign Minister Wang Yi acknowledged that all countries have a “right to self-defense” during his October 23 phone call with his Israeli counterpart. On the same day, however, Wang told his Palestinian counterpart that China “deeply sympathizes with the difficult situation of the Palestinian side, especially the people of Gaza.”

China has a clear interest in avoiding a wider, regional conflict that could disrupt global commerce, particularly access to energy. A wider conflict may push Beijing toward heightened engagement, despite historical reluctance. As world attention focuses on an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza – with a likely rise in global public criticism of Israel – The Asia Group will be closely watching if Beijing opts for more activist rhetoric and actions to erode U.S. standing on the international stage and in key regions of competition, such as Southeast Asia and the wider Global South.