“It’s a high-stakes summit with low expectations but the symbolism matters,” said Han Lin, China Country Director, The Asia Group. “Xi is returning to the White House when both countries need steadier guardrails to what is a competitive, and complex relationship.”
Here’s the full transcript of the interview:
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BBC: Let’s turn our attention to the one of the stories leading many of the papers today, which is president Xi Of China arriving in the United States to meet President Trump. So what’s going to be on the agenda? He’s just arrived in Washington. It’s his first state visit there since 2017. And since then, well, it’s been a turbulent time between America and China, hasn’t it? Locked in an AI arms race. The tariff war that they’ve had to the trade war has been on off and off and had a huge ripple effect elsewhere. We’re joined by Hanlon, who’s China managing director at Asia Group, who joins us from Shanghai. Good morning to you. Our time at the very least. Thanks. Thank you for your time.
BBC: What’s this meeting all about, do you think?
Han Lin: So it’s a high stakes summit with low expectations. But the symbolism really matters because President Xi is returning to the White House at a time when both countries really need steadier guardrails on what’s a competitive and complex relationship across trade, export controls, so on and so forth. But this warm welcome we’ve seen right now, so far from President Trump is really just the opening scene.
So the test is whether they can manage the relationship across a range of issues on trade, technology, security, geopolitics and what’s worth watching for is if they will confirm follow up meetings in November and December as well.
BBC: Now, perhaps differently to other world leaders who go to the United States. And we’ve got used to seeing our own prime ministers go meet Donald Trump. And there’s always a lot of coverage in the build up, a bit of trepidation. What curveball is Donald Trump going to be throwing? Well, you know, there’s always seems to be a risk for leaders appearing here, but is it fair to say of all the other leaders around the world, is President Xi going to be arriving with more confidence than most? It might be Donald Trump who’s thinking, I need to manage this carefully?
Han Lin: So both sides really need each other on the US side. Trump wants to be able to announce wins of sales of let’s say soybeans, Boeing aircraft, support from China on key geopolitical issues such as Ukraine and the Middle East.
But China also has desires and wants and objectives as well. What they would like from the US is tariff predictability, being able to purchase, high technology from the, from the US and to convince the US to take a closer view of how China thinks about the Taiwan issue. So there’s an incentive on both sides to really collaborate. But the issues are very complex, more than what can be resolved in a summit.
So what you do hope is that if Trump and Xi can further meet in November during the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference or December for the G20, at least you’re buying time on both sides to negotiate these issues. And ideally, you’re buying predictability to try to keep the relationship fairly stable.
BBC: How are people in China viewing China’s relationship with America at the moment?
Han Lin: Well, what you see in the China news is that President Xi is actually on a charm offensive all over the world. Prior to the US visit, President Xi was in India for the BRICS summit. Then before then, he was out in Central Asia for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. So you can get a sense that President Xi is looking to project strength, stability, and to show that while the US is important, they aren’t necessarily going to be the center of China diplomacy forever.
And this is important because next year, President Xi is looking to take on a fourth term for the National Congress. And so from now until then, he has to be able to project strength and stability. And I would suspect that the US engagement, how stable US-China relations can remain is going to be part of that equation.
BBC: And are they going to be coming to some agreement on what to do with artificial intelligence, given the the fears we’ve heard of in recent weeks that it’s threats to humanity and these, these, models running out of control there. The two countries leading on this stuff.
Han Lin: Absolutely. So when we think about AI for both US and China, I think they can agree to disagree, primarily because they’re looking at the risks from a different standpoint. So in the US, the heavy news has been really focused on the existential threat to humanity and the need for AI controls for an AI that could run amuck.
But for China, they’re looking very much to accelerate AI progress as a way to benefit the upside of China’s economic growth. And when we think about the AI risks for China, they’re very much focused on making sure you have information control in a way that if the misinformation is running around too far, it could very well threaten social stability.
So they’re looking at it from a slightly different angle. But you can believe that both sides see AI is very consequential. They’re just looking at it from a very different lens.
BBC: Han Lin, thank you for your time this morning. China managing director, Asia Group there in Shanghai.