TAG China Country Director, Han Lin, commented how China hitting its 2025 growth target was no surprise. “China may be meeting its goal—as it measures GDP – but it’s heavily through policy support, not organic momentum.”
Nonetheless, “the economy is less in a crisis than in a difficult transition: away from property and investment, toward advanced manufacturing, technology, and exports.”
The global impact is already visible. Weaker Chinese demand weighs on commodities and luxury goods, while overcapacity in EVs and clean tech pushes down global prices and strains trade ties. China may no longer be the world’s growth engine—but it remains the world’s price setter.
As Beijing announces details of its 15th Five-Year Plan, it seems cognizant that the real risk isn’t a crash; it’s a long slowdown.