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Key Takeaways

• While the general negative trajectory of U.S.-China relations will not change after the election, competition is likely to intensify, and relations may become more unpredictable under a second Trump administration. Both Trump and Harris view China as the United States’ pacing threat and seek to curtail China’s technological advancement, military modernization, and non-market practices. However, their approaches may emphasize different policy instruments.
• If re-elected, Trump would likely prioritize addressing the U.S.-China trade deficit and pursue forceful, unilateral, and transactional measures to build leverage for negotiations – such as universal tariffs on Chinese imports – that could move the two economies closer to full decoupling. In his first term, Trump used tariffs, export controls, investment restrictions, and other competitive actions as tools to accrue negotiating power. Accordingly, subsequent shifts in approach were event-driven or entity-specific.
• Like Biden, Harris favors severe but targeted restrictions on strategic sectors – following coordination with partners and allies – even while maintaining dialogue with China. Although Harris’ agenda is more predictable, her personal views on China remain largely unknown, and Beijing may test her resolve on matters such as Taiwan and the South China Sea. China’s probing could lead Harris to deviate from the Biden’s administration’s current approach.