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On October 28, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared declared that Israel had begun the “second stage” of its war against Hamas, comprising ground operations in the Gaza Strip to destroy Hamas and return the hostages Hamas took during the terrorist group’s October 7 attacks on Israel.

Given the Israeli leadership’s commitment to ousting Hamas, Hamas’s years of preparation for the conflict, and the inherent difficulties of urban warfare, the conflict will likely persist for months, rather than weeks, and could expand into a regional conflict involving Lebanon-based Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran, among others. Middle East policymakers are cautioning cautioning ofcials from these and other governments and organizations against rash action. But the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have already launched attacks attacks against Israel.

The war’s likely persistence and possible regionalization pose substantial risks for the Indo-Pacific, including: (1) higher energy prices; (2) economic retaliation against perceived Israel-aligned firms; (3) increased extremism; (4) damaged U.S. leadership; and (5) the unwinding of recent efforts to integrate the Middle East and connect the region to the Indo-Pacific.