“The mood isn’t gloomy but it’s modest. People are spending on moments, not making life-changing purchases,” says Han Lin, China Country Director, The Asia Group.
Interview Observations:
1) Is Lunar New Year spending showing that China’s consumer is back?
In Shanghai, I see crowds at train stations, packed restaurants and sold-out cinemas. People are travelling home, eating out and buying gifts. But they’re not splashing out on new apartments or big upgrades. It’s more “treat the family” than “buy a second flat.” So the mood isn’t gloomy but it’s modest. People are spending on moments, not making life-changing purchases.
2) China has set ambitious growth targets. Is that realistic this year?
China will grow — just not at the breakneck speed people remember. Think of it like a train that used to sprint and now cruises. It’s still moving faster than many others, but the turbo boost from the old property boom is gone. The government can press the accelerator, but it’s wary of flooding the system with easy money again.
3) China has flirted with falling prices. How serious is that risk?
When shops quietly cut prices and discounts last longer than usual, it sounds good for shoppers. But if people start thinking, “It’ll be cheaper next month,” they wait. If everyone waits, businesses earn less. Then they hire less. And that can become a cycle. So falling prices aren’t always a bargain — sometimes they’re a warning sign that demand is weak.